Phoenix Deal Analysis
Let's look at deal analysis for Phoenix, AZ and for 
06 Buy 10 Nomads™ with 10% Discounts.
The analysis is based on The World's Greatest Real Estate Deal Analysis Spreadsheet™ (shown above)... a free spreadsheet download you can use to analyze your own deals.
Typical Phoenix, Arizona Nomad™ Property with 10% Discount
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Typical Phoenix, Arizona Nomad™ Property with 10% Discount
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| Purchase Inputs | ||
| Percents | Dollars/# | |
| ARV | $380,322 | |
| Purchase Price | $342,290 | |
| Seller Concessions | — | $0 |
| Down Payment | 5.000% | $17,115 |
| Closing Costs | 1.000% | $3,423 |
| Rent Ready Costs | $0 | |
| Cumulative Negative Cash Flow | $1,588 | |
| Total Invested | $22,126 | |
| Mortgage | ||
| Mortgage Amount | $325,175.50 | |
| Mortgage Interest Rate | 6.500% | |
| Loan Term | 360 | |
| Private Mortgage Insurance | 0.850% | $230.33 |
| Drop PMI LTV | 80.000% | |
| Income | ||
| Monthly Rent | $2,888 $2887.50 | |
| Other Income | $0 | |
| Annual Expenses | ||
| Vacancy Rate | 3.000% | $1,040 |
| Property Taxes | 0.657% | $2,499 |
| Property Insurance | 0.442% | $1,681 |
| HOA Dues | $0 | |
| Utilities | $0 | |
| Other Expenses 1 | $0 | |
| Other Expenses 2 | $0 | |
| Maintenance | 10.000% | |
| CapEx | $0 | |
| Management | 0.000% | |
| Depreciation Details | ||
| Land Value | 15.000% | $51,344 |
| Property Type (C or R) | R | 27.5 |
| Effective Income Tax Rate | 15.000% | |
| Property Value | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| ARV at End of Year | $391,732 | $403,484 | $415,588 | $428,056 | $440,897 |
| Appreciation Rate | 3.000% | 3.000% | 3.000% | 3.000% | 3.000% |
| Appreciation Dollar | $11,410 | $11,752 | $12,105 | $12,468 | $12,842 |
| Monthly Income | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| Rent Appreciation Rate | 3.000% | 3.000% | 3.000% | 3.000% | |
| Monthly Rent | $2,888 | $2,974 | $3,063 | $3,155 | $3,250 |
| Monthly Other Income Appreciation Rate | 3.000% | 3.000% | 3.000% | 3.000% | |
| Monthly Other Income | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Monthly Gross Potential Income | $2,888 | $2,974 | $3,063 | $3,155 | $3,250 |
| Vacancy Percent | 3.000% | 3.000% | 3.000% | 3.000% | 3.000% |
| Monthly Vacancy Dollar | $87 | $89 | $92 | $95 | $97 |
| Monthly Gross Operating Income | $2,801 | $2,885 | $2,971 | $3,061 | $3,152 |
| Annual Income | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| Annual Rent | $34,650 | $35,690 | $36,760 | $37,863 | $38,999 |
| Annual Other Income | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Annual Gross Potential Income | $34,650 | $35,690 | $36,760 | $37,863 | $38,999 |
| Annual Vacancy Dollar | $1,040 | $1,071 | $1,103 | $1,136 | $1,170 |
| Annual Gross Operating Income | $33,611 | $34,619 | $35,657 | $36,727 | $37,829 |
| Annual Expenses | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| Property Taxes Percent | 0.657% | 0.657% | 0.657% | 0.657% | 0.657% |
| Property Taxes Dollar | $2,499 | $2,574 | $2,651 | $2,730 | $2,812 |
| Insurance Percent | 0.442% | 0.442% | 0.442% | 0.442% | 0.442% |
| Insurance Dollar | $1,681 | $1,731 | $1,783 | $1,837 | $1,892 |
| HOA Appreciation Rate | 3.000% | 3.000% | 3.000% | 3.000% | 3.000% |
| HOA Dues Dollar | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Utilities Appreciation Rate | 3.000% | 3.000% | 3.000% | 3.000% | 3.000% |
| Utilities Dollar | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Other Expense 1 Appreciation Rate | 3.000% | 3.000% | 3.000% | 3.000% | 3.000% |
| Other Expense 1 Dollar | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Other Expense 2 Appreciation Rate | 3.000% | 3.000% | 3.000% | 3.000% | 3.000% |
| Other Expense 2 Dollar | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Maintenance Percent | 10.000% | 10.000% | 10.000% | 10.000% | 10.000% |
| Maintenance Dollar | $3,361 | $3,462 | $3,566 | $3,673 | $3,783 |
| CapEx Appreciation Rate | 3.000% | 3.000% | 3.000% | 3.000% | 3.000% |
| CapEx Dollar | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Property Management Percent | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% | 0.000% |
| Property Management Dollar | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Annual Operating Expenses | $7,541 | $7,767 | $8,000 | $8,240 | $8,487 |
| Net Operating Income | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| Net Operating Income (NOI) | $26,070 | $26,852 | $27,657 | $28,487 | $29,342 |
| Mortgage | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| Total Annual P&I Payments | $24,664 | $24,664 | $24,664 | $24,664 | $24,664 |
| Principal | $3,635 | $3,878 | $4,138 | $4,415 | $4,710 |
| Interest | $21,029 | $20,786 | $20,526 | $20,249 | $19,953 |
| Loan Balance at End of Year | $321,541 | $317,663 | $313,525 | $309,110 | $304,400 |
| Loan-To-Value | 82.082% | 78.730% | 75.441% | 72.213% | 69.041% |
| Private Mortgage Insurance (PMI) Rate | 0.850% | ||||
| Private Mortgage Insurance Dollar | $2,764 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Equity | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| ARV - Loan Balance at End of Year | $70,191 | $85,821 | $102,063 | $118,945 | $136,497 |
| Cash Flow | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| Annual Cash Flow | -$1,358 | $2,188 | $2,993 | $3,823 | $4,678 |
| Monhtly Cash Flow | -$113 | $182 | $249 | $319 | $390 |
| Cash on Cash Return on Investment | -0.061% | 0.099% | 0.135% | 0.173% | 0.211% |
| Cap Rate | |||||
| DSCR | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Negative Cash Flow | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Cumulative Negative Cash Flow | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Organic Appreciation | $7,834 | |||
| + | Forced Appreciation | + | $0 | |
| Total Appreciation | = | $7,834 |
Let's walk through calculating Appreciation for Typical 25% Down Payment Gainesville, Florida Rental Property.
First, there's organic appreciation and forced appreciation.
Organic Appreciation
Organic appreciation is the tendency that properties become more expensive over time. Some would argue that, at least part of it, is from inflation.
Ultimately, to calculate the organic appreciation we will need the current value of the property and Appreciation Rate.
Both the current value of a property and the appreciation rate are easy since they both are primary inputs that do not require any real calculation.
Organic Appreciation
| Property Value | $261,142 | |||
| × | Appreciation Rate | × | 3% | |
| Appreciation | = | $7,834 |
That means that we're estimating Typical 25% Down Payment Gainesville, Florida Rental Property will naturally and organically appreciate $7,834.26 over a full year.
Forced Appreciation
Forced appreciation from buying a property at a discount and/or improving the property to add value.
To calculate forced appreciation—especially on a new purchase—we will take the difference between the Purchase Price and the After Repair Value of the property.
Forced Appreciation
| After Repair Value | $261,142 | |||
| - | Purchase Price | - | $261,142 | |
| Forced Appreciation | = | $0 |
That means that we're estimating Typical 25% Down Payment Gainesville, Florida Rental Property was forced to appreciate $0 by buying at a discount and/or improving the property in the next year.
It is not uncommon to have zero or even negative forced appreciation on a property when acquiring it. In fact, sometimes we deliberately trade the short-term benefit of buying a property at a discount to select a property that is likely to see better than average organic appreciation in the long-term. Think of this as: selecting a high quality, in-demand property that is likely to continue to increase in demand in the future and grow faster than inflation and other properties in different areas or with different characteristics.
Total Appreciation
The total appreciation is the sum of the estimated organic appreciation and the estimated forced appreciation over the next year.
Total Appreciation
| Organic Appreciation | $7,834 | |||
| + | Forced Appreciation | + | $0 | |
| Total Appreciation | = | $7,834 |
For Typical 25% Down Payment Gainesville, Florida Rental Property we're estimating the organic appreciation of $7,834.26 plus the forced appreciation of $0 gives us an estimated total appreciation of $7,834.26 in the next year.